Last year, loan growth in China was up by 33% in the third and fourth quarters, compared to an average growth rate of 18% over the past six years. Although lending growth came off slightly in January, it was well above the 24% growth rate during the previous loan cycle peak in 2003.
This year, we expect that lending growth will slow to about 17% as Chinese policymakers look to curb liquidity, Jing Ulrich, J.P. Morgan's chairman of China equities and commodities, said at a recent media briefing.
The central government is also trying to revert to a more balanced pace of lending this year. New loans made by Chinese banks in each of the...
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